A new projection by the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) shows that the first rainy season for 2024 will have more rainfall than last year’s, signaling the possibility of better crop yield.

Dr Bob Alex Ogwang, the acting executive director of the Authority, in a March 1 statement said the “country is expected to experience near normal (near average) to above normal (enhanced) rainfall over the forecast period [of March, April, and May (MAM) 2024].

UNMA advised that the forecast for MAM 2024 should be used for planning all rain-fed economic activities to improve economic welfare and livelihoods for all communities in their localities. 

In the new projection, rainfall is also expected to be established earlier –around “early March” in the southern parts of the country and “mid to late March” in the northern part of the country. 

This is still earlier than last year’s projection which put the onset in southern parts of the country around “mid-March” and for northern parts of the country “late March and early April.

Uganda generally experiences two major rainfall seasons; MAM, and September-October-November-December (SOND) as the first and second rainy seasons respectively. However, regions in the northern sector of the country experience the third rainfall season during the June-July-August (JJA) period.

For this year’s MAM, Dr Ogwang said the areas expected to receive above normal (enhanced) rainfall include highland areas of southwestern, and Mount Elgon, extending to Karamoja.

The rainfall onset is expected to be established around early March in the southern parts of the country, especially in Southwestern, Central, Western Lake Victoria basin, and eastern. While for northern and northeastern areas of the country, the onset is expected around mid to late March. The onset is likely to be characterised by severe isolated thunderstorms associated with strong winds, lightning, and hailstorms,” he said.

From Monitor Publications