The forecast period (June, July and August) is generally part of the dry season over most parts of southwestern, central, Lake Victoria basin and some parts of eastern region but a continuation of rainfall season for much of the northern Uganda. Following the conclusion of the 43rd Climate Outlook Forum for the Greater Horn of Africa held in Naivasha, Kenya from 30th – 31st May 2016, the national, regional and international climate scientists reviewed the state of the global climate system and its implications on the seasonal rainfall over the East African region. It was observed that the major physical conditions likely to influence the weather conditions of Uganda and the rest of the region for the forecast period of June to August 2016 are as follows:
- The neutral conditions of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the equatorial Pacific Ocean with a heightened likelihood of La Niña episode to start developing during the second half of 2016 with a 75% chance of at least a weak La Niña by the end of the year which calls for close monitoring;
- The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that has significant influence on regional climate is also predicted to be in the negative phase during the second half of 2016; and
- The influence of regional circulation patterns, topographical features and large inland water bodies.
UNMA therefore predicts that for the season June to August (JJA) 2016, overall there is an increased likelihood of near normal tending to above normal rainfall over the northern and some parts of eastern region, while the rest of the country is expected to experience below normal rainfall punctuated with occasional light rainfall.