The seasonal rainfall outlook for MAM (March, April, May) has been released and there is an increased likelihood of near normal to above normal (wetter than average) rainfall over several parts of the country. The onset of the seasonal rains is expected to be early in South-western (late February) with a gradual progression in other parts of the country. The rainfall onset over the Eastern, Northern and North-eastern Uganda is expected to get established around mid-March to early April. The Season is highly expected to be associated with thunderstorm activity that is likely to be characterized by lightning, strong winds and hailstones in some parts of the country.

Major physical conditions likely to influence the weather situation during the forecast period  are as follows:

  • The current and evolving Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies over global oceans, specifically the increased probability for neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO) conditions over equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phases through the March to May 2020 period
  • Intra-seasonal variations such as the influence of Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) which are most significant over the region.
  • The influence of regional circulation patterns, topographical features, and large inland water bodies;

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Supported by the GIZ/USAID PROJECT:
Strengthening Meteorological Products, Services and Use in the Agriculture and Water Sectors.