UNMA's March 2016 rainfall analysis indicates that most parts of the country generally experienced relatively low rainfall. Indeed, some areas remained dry and sunny for the larger part of the month. However, some areas in Western, South-Western and Lake Victoria basin experienced substantial amounts of rainfall during March. The onset of rainfall season was reported to have been established in the first and second week of March for most areas in Western and South-Western. However, most parts of the country started experiencing the onset towards the end of March.
This weather was due to warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) anomalies which persisted in the South-Western and Central Indian Ocean basin while the SSTs in the Western Indian Ocean along the East African coast remained neutral. The northern hemisphere pressure systems intensified significantly while the southern hemisphere pressure systems relaxed. This condition allowed the rain bearing Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to further shift southwards over Tanzania hence reducing wet activities across most parts of the country.
For the remaining months in the season, April and May 2016, UNMA estimates an increased likelihood ofnear normal to above normal rainfall over most parts of the country. The breakdown of the forecast for each region, implications of the forecast and specific advisories to different sectors are given in the Rainfall Update for April and May 2016.