The 2015 second major rainfall season in Uganda has an increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall over most areas in the country. It was observed that the major physical conditions that are likely to influence the evolution of these weather conditions include the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical oceans and their implications on rainfall bearing mechanisms including;

  • The phase and strength of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode, which is currently in warming phase,
  • Likely impacts of El Nino over equatorial eastern pacific Ocean that is predicted to persist during the rest of the 2015 and early months of 2016,
  • Sea Surface temperature anomalies over the Atlantic ocean, and
  • The influence of these ocean processes will be modulated by regional circulation systems such as regional monsoonal winds, topographical features and large inland water bodies.

This analysis was considered during the 41st Climate Outlook Forum (COF41) for the Greater Horn of Africa that was held in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania from 24th to 26th August 2015. Read more: 

http://unma.go.ug/index.php/climate/seasonal-forecasts

GIZ/GERMAN COORPORATIONUSAID
Supported by the GIZ/USAID PROJECT:
Strengthening Meteorological Products, Services and Use in the Agriculture and Water Sectors.