The June, July and August forecast period is generally part of the dry season over most parts of south western, central, Lake Victoria basin and some parts of eastern region but a continuation of rainfall season for much of the northern Uganda. It generally marks the end of the first rainfall season for the southern sector of the country and is usually a harvest season for crops.
Following the conclusion of the 46th Climate Outlook Forum for the Greater Horn of Africa held in Khartoum, Republic of Sudan from 15th – 16th May 2017, the national, regional and international climate scientists reviewed the state of the global climate system and its implications on the seasonal rainfall over the East African region. It was observed that the major physical conditions likely to influence the weather conditions over Uganda and the rest of the east African region for the forecast period of June to August 2017 are as follows:
- The weak positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that has significant influence on regional climate;
- The neutral conditions of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the equatorial Pacific Ocean with a heightened likelihood of El Niño episode to start developing during the second half of 2017 with a 60% chance of at least a weak El Niño by the end of the year which calls for close monitoring;
- The influence of regional circulation patterns, topographical features and large inland water bodies.
Based on the above considerations as well as details of the climatology of Uganda and scientific tools for climate analysis, Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) under Ministry of Water and Environment has downscaled the regional forecast and come up with the following detailed forecast:-
Overall, there is an increased likelihood of near normal tending to above normal rainfall over the northern and some parts of eastern region, while the rest of the country is expected to experience below normal rainfall punctuated with occasional light rainfall conditions.
The seasonal forecast issued for June to August 2017 across regions of Uganda is detailed in June to August 2017 Seasonal Rainfall Update.