The bi-monthly National Integrated Early Warning Bulletin “U-NIEWS” for August to September 2018 has been released by the National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre (NECOC), under the Office of the Prime Minister. The bulletin provides national, multi-hazard and early warning information; highlighting both information and forecasting from a number of sources, including Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA), other government agencies and partners (MDAs).


The bulletin is also available on UNMA website (Disaster Warnings) and NECOC’s website, link below:

http://www.necoc-opm.go.ug/UNIEWS/0.%20U-NIEWS_August-September%20%202018.pdf

The month of April marks the peak of the March to May ("Long Rains") seasonal rainfall while March is normally associated with the onset of rainfall over most parts of the country. The rainfall outlook for April 2018 indicates that most parts of the country are likely to experience enhanced rainfall especially in western and mountainous areas of Elgon. Overall, wet conditions and reduced temperatures are likely to prevail during the month of April 2018 over most parts of the country.

Overall, the April forecast indicates that most parts of the country are expected to have enhanced rainfall. However, the mountain areas of Rwenzori and Elgon plus the highlands of South Western Uganda are expected to receive above the average rainfall which might impact negatively to the communities in those areas.

The detailed Rainfall performance and update for March to April 2018 is detailed in Rainfall Update for April 2018 under MonthlyPerformance

The cold and hazy conditions being experienced over most parts of the country have been caused by the winds blowing from the Northern Hemisphere which is experiencing winter towards our region and hence bringing the cold conditions.

Cold and hazy conditions are expected to prevail over most parts of the country until mid-January 2018 when the phenomenon will reduce.

For details visit the links below:

Weather Outlook Statement: Cold and Hazy Weather-January 2018 

https://www.unma.go.ug/index.php/climate/monthly-climate

September to December period constitutes the second major rainfall season in Uganda. During the 47th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF47) for the Greater Horn of Africa that was held at Zanzibar Beach Resort in Zanzibar, Republic of Tanzania from 21st – 22nd August 2017, the national, regional and international climate scientists reviewed the current state of the global climate systems and their implications on the seasonal rainfall over the Greater Horn of Africa.

It was observed that the major physical conditions that are likely to influence the evolution of weather conditions over Uganda and the rest of the region for the forecast period of September to December 2017 will include:

  • The predicted neutral phase of Indian Ocean Dipole and neutral ENSO conditions in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (No El Niño and no La Niña);
  • The influence of regional circulation patterns, topographical features, and large inland water bodies.

Based on the above considerations as well as details of the climatology of Uganda and scientific tools for climate analysis, Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) has downscaled the regional forecast and come up with the following detailed forecast:

  • Overall, there is an increased likelihood of above normal (above average) rainfall over much of Uganda, while near normal (average) rainfall over south western Uganda and near normal to below normal rainfall conditions over Karamoja regions.

The seasonal forecast issued for September to December 2017 across regions of Uganda is detailed in  September to December 2017 Seasonal Rainfall Update

The June, July and August forecast period is generally part of the dry season over most parts of south western, central, Lake Victoria basin and some parts of eastern region but a continuation of rainfall season for much of the northern Uganda. It generally marks the end of the first rainfall season for the southern sector of the country and is usually a harvest season for crops.

Following the conclusion of the 46th Climate Outlook Forum for the Greater Horn of Africa held in Khartoum, Republic of Sudan from 15th – 16th May 2017, the national, regional and international climate scientists reviewed the state of the global climate system and its implications on the seasonal rainfall over the East African region. It was observed that the major physical conditions likely to influence the weather conditions over Uganda and the rest of the east African region for the forecast period of June to August 2017 are as follows:

  1. The weak positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that has significant influence on regional climate;
  2. The neutral conditions of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the equatorial Pacific Ocean with a heightened likelihood of El Niño episode to start developing during the second half of 2017 with a 60% chance of at least a weak El Niño by the end of the year which calls for close monitoring;
  3. The influence of regional circulation patterns, topographical features and large inland water bodies.

Based on the above considerations as well as details of the climatology of Uganda and scientific tools for climate analysis, Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) under Ministry of Water and Environment has downscaled the regional forecast and come up with the following detailed forecast:-

Overall, there is an increased likelihood of near normal tending to above normal rainfall over the northern and some parts of eastern region, while the rest of the country is expected to experience below normal rainfall punctuated with occasional light rainfall conditions.

The seasonal forecast issued for June to August 2017 across regions of Uganda is detailed in June to August 2017 Seasonal Rainfall Update

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GIZ/GERMAN COORPORATIONUSAID
Supported by the GIZ/USAID PROJECT:
Strengthening Meteorological Products, Services and Use in the Agriculture and Water Sectors.